Venezuela at a Crossroads

Despite the popularity of María Corina Machado, Venezuela's future hangs by a thread held by Nicolás Maduro

Venezuela, my beloved country, is at a critical juncture. After more than two decades of Hugo Chávez and Nicolás Maduro's Orwellian dominance, the regime's grip on the people has notably weakened thanks to the chronic crisis caused by its incompetence. During that period, the Chavista regime has dwarfed Venezuela's economy, once the fourth in Latin America, to one the size of Haiti´s.

The upcoming elections on July 28th pose a significant threat to President Maduro's authoritarian rule. The reason is the rising popularity of María Corina Machado, who, in October 2023, won by a landslide the opposition's primary election, prompting alarm among Maduro's acolytes, who acted swiftly.

The Attorney General disqualified her from holding public office, citing an obscure ruling by the Contraloría General. Mrs Machado appealed the decision to the Supreme Court, which upheld the verdict in January 2024. Nevertheless, she continued her campaign, vowing to fight until the end. The subsequent events have left observers of the Venezuelan situation perplexed.

The candidate registration deadline was March 25th, and Maduro had no issues registering. However, given Machado's disqualification, the PUD (Democratic Unitary Platform) attempted to register Corina Yoris, an academic, instead. The CNE (electoral authority) blocked the registration, and two other opposition candidates, Manuel Rosales and Edmundo González, were allowed to register. Rosales withdrew in favor of González, who Mrs Machado supports. This time, the opposition outmaneuvered the government.

The election's outcome is uncertain, but it is clear that Venezuela's future hangs in the balance. Although Edmundo González is the official opposition candidate, Mrs Machado continues campaigning for him, drawing large crowds. Given the electoral authority's close ties to the Maduro regime, the question on everyone's mind is whether Maduro will accept the likely outcome of an opposition victory.

Maduro's history of human rights violations and his reliance on international allies, including Russia, Iran, Syria, and Cuba, suggest that he, like his allies, might prefer to maintain authoritarian control rather than relinquish power. Maduro has a history of manipulating the electoral process and may attempt to do so again. Moreover, he has previously used the threat of external intervention, particularly from the United States, to justify suppressing the opposition.

The EU, the United States, and the OAS have expressed strong concerns and criticisms regarding the potential cancellation of the elections in Venezuela. Even Colombia and Brazil, close allies of Maduro, have taken an unusual step by criticizing Venezuela over the election process. However, only the EU has made a practical step by naming an international contact group to help find a democratic way out of the crisis in Venezuela.

Among the many power moves Maduro has at his disposal, this time, he could invoke the "Guyana card" because he has threatened that country with "recovering" the Esequibo region for some time now. If he were to suspend the elections using that or any other excuse, the chronic crisis would deepen, destabilizing the region even more and provocating the exodus of more Venezuelans. So far, more than seven million people have left the country looking for better living conditions.

If Edmundo González is elected, he will likely name Mrs Machado his Vice President and the person in charge of governing the country. Specialists predict that if the opposition wins the July election and Mr Gonzalez sits in the presidential chair in January 2025, Venezuela could experience a significant economic boom over the next six years. The predicted economic growth will probably cause many Venezuelans to return to their home country, alleviating the migration crisis.

However, the six months from July 2024 to January 2025 are in limbo, given that Maduro will continue to hold all his power during that period.